James Toney and the Impossible Dream

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Randy Couture's dismantling of James Toney at UFC 118 should come as no surprise to anyone with even a passing interest in mixed martial arts.  Competing at an elite level in MMA requires a mastery of a wide range of skills, including wrestling, kickboxing, jiu-jitsu, takedown and submission defense, that are foreign to even the most experienced boxer.  Exceptional striking is really the final piece of the puzzle.  Throw in the fact that Couture is, conservatively, one of the ten best mixed martial artists ever and Toney seemed to be in this more for the big payday than the victory, and the utter obliteration that occurred Saturday night was inevitable.

The thing is, I don't think Toney's loss is going to do anything to stem the tide of professional athletes from other sports dipping their toes in MMA waters.  Despite his defeat, and the middling performances of Kimbo Slice, Herschel Walker and Bobby Lashley, boxers, football players, pro wrestlers and more will keep trying their hand at mixed martial arts for one reason - Brock Lesnar is UFC's heavyweight champion.
By definition, succeeding as a professional athlete requires defying the odds.  For example, only about 0.2% of high school football players ever make it to the NFL.  As such, just the act of becoming a professional means that you believe that you are the exception, the one capable of greatness where others would fail.  It means identifying with the people that make it, not the ones that meet defeat.  It means believing, to the very core of your being, that you are the next Lesnar, not just another Toney.

That said, Brock Lesnar is nothing like Toney, or Kimbo, or Walker, or even fellow WWE alumnus Lashley.  Unlike the former three, Lesnar's resume includes a standout run as an amateur wrestler, which has proven to be a solid foundation for MMA success.  Although Lashley does share this distinction, he's not a unique athlete in the way that Lesnar is.  Specifically, while Lashley may be big and quick, Lesnar is both stronger and more agile that the people he's fighting against.  Goliath shouldn't be able to outmove you in a fight, but when he can it's almost impossible to deal with, regardless of skills and experience.  Throw in the fact that Lesnar has a decent idea of what to do with his physical gifts in the cage and you've got the rare athlete that can defy the MMA odds and become an outsider-come-champion.

Maybe someday there will be a boxer that achieves the impossible dream and wins a UFC championship, but it won't be someone like Toney, a former great looking to get paid.  It will be a 25-year old champion that walks away from a boxing belt in his prime and spends the next 4 years learning the MMA ropes and entering the cage as a genuinely well rounded competitor.