Some background, this was a snake draft in a 12-team league, 6 points per TD, yardage bonuses and rosters that include 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE flex, K, team defense and an individual defender. I had the 6th pick.
1. When in Doubt Start a Run on a Position
The first round of my league's draft started off with a run on running backs (Johnson, Peterson, MJD, Turner and Rice), so I was immediately faced with a choice; reach for a running back or take my top pick at another position. I wanted a sure thing in round 1, so I passed on injury risks like Steven Jackson and Frank Gore and took my #1 QB, Drew Brees, over my #1 receiver Andre Johnson. Part of this decision was based on my belief that Brees is simply better given my league's format. However, a bigger factor was my hope that, in taking Brees, I could kick off a QB run and push some of the runners and receivers that I liked further down the board into round 2 and 3.
Fortunately, that's exactly what happened. Rodgers and Manning were taken within the next 7 picks, leaving Calvin Johnson (my #2 ranked WR) for me at pick 19. Even better, since Romo, Brady and Schaub went at the end of the round, Greg Jennings slid to me in round 3.
The beginning of Round 4 was a bloodbath for my draft board as 5 players that I liked in this slot (Forte, Stewart, Charles, Rice and McCoy) were taken in quick succession. Faced with an uninspiring collection of backs and receivers, I chose to try to kick off another positional run by taking my top TE, Antonio Gates. This worked beautifully, as 4 more tight ends were taken over the next 9 picks, setting me up for a steal in round 5.
2. Grab Talent Over Need
As my round 5 pick approached, I still didn't have any running backs, an unenviable position for any fantasy manager. Despite this, I decided to skip over some interesting but difficult to predict runners (Forsett, Jacobs, Bradshaw) in favor of a third wideout that had inexplicably slid down the draft board, Michael Crabtree. As unsettling as it was to go this deep into the draft without a running back, my main priority in the middle rounds is to pick up players that have a chance to deliver first or second round value. Crabtree fits that description to a T.
3. Draft Startable Depth at Key Positions
In the next three rounds, there weren't any must-have sliders at receiver, so it was time to address the running back situation. At this point, my strategy was to load up on backs that were good, solid bets to provide 7 points per week (112 for the season), either as their team's primary rusher or through disproportionate goal line carries. I picked up Ricky Williams, Marion Barber and Clinton Portis, and although I don't think any of them are going to put up 1,000 yard, 10 TD seasons, 700 yards and 7 TDs is pretty likely and should be plenty if my passing game produces what I think it will.
Later on, I made sure to back up my Brees and my flex position with respectable starters that have some upside, Kenny Britt (round 10) and Vince Young (round 12). I didn't find a reliable backup running back though, so that's something I may have to keep an eye out for if my next collection of picks don't pan out.
4. The Late Rounds are for Lottery Tickets
I think when fantasy managers think of sleepers, they think of third wide receivers that could break out with 50 catches or a rookie running back that may get 40% of his team's carries. That's not a sleeper, that's a bye week sub. A real sleeper is the player that you pick up for next to nothing and wins your league.
So, with that in mind and my starters in place, I began to look for home runs in round 9, starting with perhaps the most intriguing all-or-nothing candidate in the NFL this year, Vincent Jackson. Now, I think that there's about an 80% chance that Jackson either doesn't play at all or signs so late that he's a fantasy non-factor this season, but in the off chance that he returns during the first third of the year, he's a second or third round talent that could easily average double digit fantasy points a game. That's the type of guy that wins a league.
My round 11 (Darren McFadden), round 15 (Josh Morgan) and round 16 (Justin Fargas, in the event that Knowshawn Moreno is too banged up to start the season) were all taken with the hope that they could be 1,000 yard, 8 TD type players. If they are, I've got a true difference maker. If they aren't, they're very easy to cut.
5. Plan for the Waiver Wire
My running back depth is predicated on the fact that I only need to play 2 runners, so McFadden and Fargas are something of a luxury. Still, if they don't show signs of life in week 1, I won't hesitate to cut them immediately and upgrade by whoever surprises from the free agent pool. I believe that there's always useful talent to be found on waivers, which is why I'm willing to take the boom or bust guys early and often. If they don't work out, just try someone else.
Also, the waiver wire is the reason not to prioritize defenses and kickers. While I didn't heed my own advice this year, filling the positions before the final rounds, I normally do just fine by signing the D/ST and K that has the best matchup each week.
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